The big divide

Based on Clive Shepherd's observation., I believe the e-learning market, like many other markets, is growing into a low end/high end segmented business. On the low end it is all about cheap, standard and mass. That is the spot where expensive other forms of learning like classrooms will be transformed to, unless the class delivers high value. It is the spot of weblectures, standard page-clicking e-learning, quizzes, simulations, etc. On the high end it is all about exclusive (smaller audience), tailored and more expensive content. That is the spot of serious gaming, video or animation, real-time adapted content and virtual immersive learning solutions.

In the lower end there will (hopefully) soon be a widely accepted open source alternative for making content as opposed to managing it (we have plenty of open source LMS systems by now). In the higher end I expect to see content makers collaborating with other players such as media production houses and movie and game specialists.